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Forecasting the future

General questions about using Fund Manager that do not fit into any other forum.

Postby tomseeley » Mon Nov 29, 2021 9:16 am

I have a question about the right way to use some of the data from FM to forecast future portfolio performance.

Yeah, I know...past performance is no guarantee...yada yada yada :lol:

But ASSUMING I'm willing to assume that my future withdrawals, deposits, incomes, RMDs, etc., remain about as they've been for the past decade or so, and ASSUMING macro economic factors remain about as they've been, would it be reasonable, MATHEMATICALLY AND THEORETICALLY at least, to forecast that my portfolio might behave according to the Internal Rate of Return FM might give me, for the past decade or so?

OR would this be a mathematically, theoretically incorrect use of IRR entirely?

I.e., my question really is about how to use IRR the way it's supposed to be interpreted.

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Postby Mark » Mon Nov 29, 2021 11:26 am

Hi tomseeley,

ROI figures are rates, so if you calculate the ROI of your portfolio over the time period you want, and you wanted to make those assumptions you mentioned, that same ROI would apply going forward.
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Postby tomseeley » Wed Dec 08, 2021 10:19 am

Thanks. I thought that was the case but it's reassuring to have an expert agree with me!
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